By Edoardo Molinari
Three-time DP World Tour winner and Europe's Ryder Cup Vice Captain Edoardo Molinari identifies the key holes at the Renaissance Club and the players to watch out for as one of golf's leading data analysts.
Looking back: Robert MacIntyre's victory in 2024
MacIntyre gained over a shot per round in the three big areas: tee shots, approach shots and putting. He was the leading player in shots gained with the long game, which means that his ball striking was fantastic all week.
His approach play was also exceptional, particularly between 150 and 200 yards, where he was 1.093 shots per round better than the field. All this shows he had great control of his ball flight in the windy conditions.
MacIntyre's lag putting was also outstanding, proven by the fact that when he putted from outside 35 feet, his second putt distance was on average a foot closer than the rest of the field.
Everyone remembers the putt on the last but there were two shots that were worth more to Bob’s win: the long putt on the 14th hole gained him 1.11 shots and the second shot on the 16th hole gained him 1.05 shots. The putt on the last was worth 0.93 shots in comparison but under the circumstances, it was probably one of the best shots of Bob’s career.
The Fortinet holes to watch out for
Hole 16
This may be the second easiest hole on the course historically but the par five is also the hole with the greatest variability in scoring. It is a difficult fairway to hit as only 48% of players hit the fairway but it is vital to hit the fairway if you want to increase the chance of a birdie. Missing left off the tee basically eliminates the chance for a birdie and this is probably the most important tee shot of the round. Historically 41% of players make birdie here with 8% recording bogey or worse.
Hole 18
This is the toughest hole on the course and it usually plays into the wind which can make it a brutal finishing hole. You absolutely have to miss the bunkers off the tee or you may well become one of the 34% of players who record bogey or worse here. Only 7% of players make birdie on a hole which was the hardest 18th hole on the DP World Tour in 2022.
Hole 9
This is the toughest par three on the course and that all comes down to the tee-shot, with just 44% of players hitting the green. Just 46 birdies were made on the 218-yard hole in 2024, the fourth fewest of any hole on the course.
Players to watch
The stars
Rory McIlroy has a great record around this course having finished fourth last season and he will be eager to have a good week to gain some confidence before going back to Portrush for The Open. It’s a course that suits long hitters who can control the ball in the wind and with his style of play. McIlroy could take back the title he won in 2023.
Viktor Hovland is starting to play some really good golf again. His approach play has been nothing short of incredible in recent weeks and he grew up playing in bad weather and windy conditions. He missed the cut on his first visit to Renaissance but has been in the 60s in six of his last eight rounds, including a 63 in 2023.
Justin Thomas has had a solid year so far with a win and three second place finishes. His driving is a little erratic but it shouldn't be an issue around Renaissance and his ability to work the ball with his irons should prove very handy this week.
The outsiders
Kristoffer Reitan has been playing some great golf in recent months with his maiden DP World Tour win in Belgium and runner-up finish in Austria. He is a long hitter that can play well in the wind, two essential elements for success this week. He has enjoyed a few great Sundays this year and could be a contender on this course.
Victor Perez has played well here before with a top ten last season and he lived in Scotland before moving to the United States so he is used to the windy conditions. He has been playing well in recent weeks too, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him towards the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.
Romain Langasque won The Amateur Championship back in 2015 and he loves playing links golf. He hasn’t had his best season so far but links golf should bring out some of his creativity with approach play and short game. He finished two shots out of a play-off at Renaissance in 2019 and was third again last season.
