By Edoardo Molinari
In his regular Rolex Series column for the DP World Tour, Edoardo Molinari identifies the key holes and the players to watch out for at the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club.
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A three-time DP World Tour winner, the Italian has become one of golf's leading data analysts for a host of world-renowned players and will aim to help Europe to a third consecutive Ryder Cup triumph next year in his role as a Vice Captain to skipper Luke Donald.
Crunching the numbers, Molinari previews the second Rolex Series event of the season as the best of the DP World Tour and PGA TOUR assemble for the $9million co-sanctioned event.
This season, the championship layout at The Renaissance Club is rerouted to build an exciting closing stretch for both players and fans.
At the heart of the changes, the fan-favourite par three sixth hole now becomes the 15th hole as the front and back nines are switched (holes eight and nine along with 17 and 18 are unchanged).
Looking Back: Chris Gotterup's victory in 2025
Unfazed in the final pairing alongside Major winners Rory McIlroy and Wyndham Clark, Gotterup claimed his first DP World Tour and Rolex Series title 12 months ago.
With a closing four-under-par 66, the American, who entered the event as the World Number 158, finished at 15 under, two clear of McIlroy and Marco Penge.
Across the week, Gotterup gained 3.8 shots per round, half of which came courtesy of his putter. He gained +1.6 shots/round on putts inside 15 foot alone, so he basically holed everything he was supposed to hole, and then some.
The other pillar behind his success was his driving: +1.3 shots/round off the tee, a classic power profile for this course.
While his approach play overall was only slightly better than the field (+0.2), he gained +0.7 shots/round from 150-200 yards, which has been the key approach range at The Renaissance Club in recent editions.
His only setbacks for the week were approach shots from 100-150 yards and from over 200 yards, but the short stick covered for everything.
Here is the fun part with the new routing: Gotterup's victory can be attributed to his performance across four holes in particular — formerly the sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth, where he gained 9.6 shots on the field for the week, almost two-thirds of his total separation.
Two of those are now the 15th and 16th, the heart of the new closing stretch, where he gained 5.3 shots combined (1.9 on the 15th, 3.4 on the 16th). The other two, the eighth and ninth, are unchanged in the new routing and gave him another 4.3 shots combined.
His three most valuable shots of the week: a 46-foot putt on the new 11th (old second) in round two (+1.10 shots), his tee shot on the new par three third (old 12th) from 196 yards in the final round (+1.05) and his tee shot on the new 15th (old sixth) from 154 yards in round three (+0.98).
The holes to watch out for
Instead of looking at the most difficult holes, we look at holes with the most variance in scoring, where the players have the biggest chance to separate themselves from the field and win or lose the event.
All statistics below are from the last four editions of the Genesis Scottish Open (2022-25):
Hole 7 (old 16th), par 5
• The hole with the most variability in scoring on the course: 41% birdies or better but 9% bogeys or worse
• Only 45% of players hit this fairway, and it matters enormously: 51% birdies from the fairway vs 34% from the rough
• The fairway bunkers are the real card-wreckers: from there players made just 6% birdies against 34% bogeys or worse, so you absolutely have to miss the bunkers off the tee
Hole 18 (unchanged), par 4
• The re-routing changes nothing about the finish: this is still the toughest hole on the course
• There have been only 7% birdies vs 33% bogeys or worse
• Miss the fairway here and the chance of bogey or worse jumps from 20% to 47%, the biggest fairway penalty on the course — you absolutely have to stay out of the bunkers off the tee
• The tee shot here is one of the three most important shots of the round
Hole 9 (unchanged), par 3
• The toughest par three on the course: it has played just over 210 yards and players hit the green only 46% of the time, making it the hardest green to find at The Renaissance Club
• There have been 8% birdies vs 26% bogeys or worse
What to expect from a new closing stretch (14-15-16)
Hole 14 (old fifth), par 4
• The risk-reward hole: half the field hits it 270 yards or more off the tee and 46% of all tee shots finish within 60 yards of the green
• Players who take it on birdie 50% of the time against 23% for those who lay back, and score about 0.4 shots better — expect almost everyone to attack on Sunday
• The third easiest hole on the course (36% birdies or better), so a par here costs a third of a shot to the field
Hole 15 (old sixth), par 3
• The shortest hole on the course — it has played anywhere between roughly 105 and 145 yards — but a genuine coin flip: 16% birdies vs 17% bogeys or worse
• The tee shot here produces one of the widest spreads in strokes gained of any single shot at The Renaissance Club: with wind on an exposed green, wedges finish anywhere
• Set up changes everything: in 2022 only 51% of players hit this green and the hole averaged over par; in 2024, with a shorter set up, 74% hit the green and it gave up 26% birdies
• When players miss this green they get up and down only 62% of the time, a poor number for a wedge in hand off the tee
Hole 16 (old seventh), par 4
• This is where the grind home starts: the fourth hardest hole, with 9% birdies vs 26% bogeys or worse
• Less than half the field (47%) hits this fairway, and missing it lifts the chance of bogey or worse from 19% to 33%
The bigger picture on the new routing
• After the 15th there is no let-up: the 16th and the 18th rank fourth and first hardest on the course, so realistically the last birdie chances of the round are the drivable 14th and a wedge into 15
• The three single most important shots at The Renaissance Club are the tee shots on 15, 18 and the par three ninth — with two of the three now coming in the last four holes, the new routing should make for a great finish.
Players to watch
This is a course that suits long hitters who can control their ball flight in the wind.
Last year, Gotterup, Marco Penge and Nicolai Højgaard — three of the best drivers of the week — finished first, tied second and tied fourth respectively.
The Stars
• Rory McIlroy has the best course record of anyone in the field: +3.0shots/round over his last 12 rounds here. Champion in 2023 and runner-up last year, he gains in every area of the game at the venue and his short game (+0.8/round) has quietly been his biggest edge.
• Scottie Scheffler has gained +1.4 shots/round with his approach play here, and the only thing that has held him back at The Renaissance Club is the putter (-0.4/round) over his three appearances
• Robert MacIntyre won here in 2024 in front of his home crowd with a complete performance (over +1 shot/round in approach and putting) and has gained +1.7 shots/round over 14 career rounds at The Renaissance Club. He arrives as one of the most in-form players in the field and the crowd will carry him all week.
The Outsiders
• Marco Penge led the field off the tee last year (+1.5 shots/round) on his way to a runner-up finish. The course rewards exactly his kind of clubhead speed and distance, and if the putter cooperates he can go one better this time.
• Nicolai Højgaard has gained +1.9 shots/round over his last eight rounds here, with elite driving (+1.0) and approach play (+1.0). He was T4 last year and this course fits his aggressive style perfectly.
• Harry Hall grew up on links golf in Cornwall and it shows: +1.0 shot/round over his two starts at The Renaissance Club, built on the putter (+0.7/round on these greens). He can make plenty of putts and links weeks tend to bring out his best.
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