The final tournament on the DP World Tour season schedule never fails to deliver drama.
This year, the top 50 players in the Race to Dubai will tee it up in the final Rolex Series event of 2023.
To beat this elite field, navigating the most difficult tests on the Earth course successfully will be a vital component to the week.
A year ago, Jon Rahm carded only four bogeys all week on his way to victory. Three of them came on this week’s Fortinet Threat Score holes.
Let’s examine these three tough examinations, and why they will be the sternest challenges opposing an excellent field at this year’s DP World Tour Championship.
Hole 9
Difficulty Rank: 1st
At just a touch under 500 yards on the scorecard, the par four ninth has historically been the most difficult hole on the Earth course. As one might expect on a hole of this distance, power is a very valuable asset: additional length off the tee is worth 0.13 strokes on average, the second-highest number on the course.
The average approach shot into the ninth green is 199 yards, second-longest on the Earth course. That, in turn, has yielded a green in regulation rate of just 57%, the smallest number anywhere on this layout. In 2022, finding the green in two shots was worth nearly 0.3 strokes over the field, the most valuable G.I.R. a player could hit that week. Even after finding the green, though, it’s no picnic. The field has historically averaged 1.92 putts per green in regulation here, the second-highest average on the course.
Hole 12
Difficulty Rank: 2nd
Three holes later at the 12th, another difficult par four awaits the best of the DP World Tour. Bunkers protect both sides of the fairway, which bottlenecks halfway down this 476-yard test. Missing this fairway will cost players nearly half-a-stroke on average, the second-highest penalty on the Earth course.
The rough undoubtedly factors into the next shot: players hit this green in regulation less than 60% of the time. Over the last five years, finding the putting surface at the 12th in two shots has been worth 0.27 strokes, the highest average at this championship. Again, a long average proximity to the hole (42 feet) leads to a high putts per G.I.R. number – 1.88, third-most historically at this venue.
Hole 4
Difficulty Rank: 3rd
The toughest par three on the Earth course is the first one on the card: the 245-yard fourth hole. This hole features the longest average approach shot players face at the Earth course. An inaccurate tee shot is likely to wind up in the sand, as massive bunkers shield every side of this green. It’s likely that a player’s lag putting will be tested here at some point during the championship, as the average proximity to the hole is 45 feet, the highest number anywhere on the course.
There’s a silver lining to be had in that statistic, though. A great approach is rewarded handsomely on this tough par three – proximity to the cup has the second-highest value of any hole at the Earth course historically.
Players to Watch
Let’s start with a certain three-time winner of this event, reigning Masters champion and current World Number Three Rahm. The Spaniard has gained, on average, 0.13 strokes on the field each time he has played one of these three holes in his illustrious career. The ninth gave Rahm some trouble in his win in 2022, as he made bogey there in each of the first two rounds.
Rory McIlroy has won this championship on two occasions, in 2012 and 2015. Historically, no player has picked up more shots on the competition in sum than McIlroy has on these three tough holes – 21.0 strokes gained in 48 rounds. Overall, McIlroy has made 43 more birdies here than any other player since the inaugural championship back in 2009.
In just 12 career rounds, Rasmus Højgaard has found great success on these three holes. His career average of 0.20 strokes gained per hole is the best of any player in the field with at least a dozen laps around the Earth course.
