Europe's Ryder Cup Vice Captain Edoardo Molinari, one of golf's leading data strategists, gives us his perspective on the key challenges a player faces at Shinnecock Hills and highlights five DP World Tour members who he thinks could mount title challenges at the U.S. Open.
By Edoardo Molinari
What wins at Shinnecock
The world's best golfers will assemble on Long Island, New York, for the U.S. Open - the third men's Major Championship of the season.
After Rory McIlroy's dramatic repeat Masters triumph and the US PGA Championship seeing Aaron Rai become the first Englishman in over 100 years to win the Wanamaker Trophy, one of the sport’s pre-eminent championships returns to one of its most famed venues.
Shinnecock has hosted five U.S. Opens, in 1896, 1986, 1995, 2004 and 2018, and is the only club to stage this Major in three centuries.
In 2018, Brooks Koepka became the first back-to-back U.S. Open winner in 29 years at the end of a week that saw no one in the field finish under par.
The American joined Retief Goosen (2004), Corey Pavin (1995), Raymond Floyd (1986) and James Foulis (1896) as U.S. Open champions at Shinnecock.
The winning profile is consistent: accuracy off the tee to avoid the fescue, elite iron play from both fairway and rough, patience on fast crowned greens, and the putting touch to convert par saves from seven to 13 feet.
We had a historic first this year, with European players winning the first two Majors of the season for the first time in the four-Major era.
Not only that but four Europeans finished in the top six at Aronimink Golf Club in Philadelphia.
American J.J. Spaun is the defending champion after his maiden Major triumph at Oakmont Country Club 12 months ago, but Grand Slam-chasing Scottie Scheffler and McIlroy are among a host of established high-calibre players in the 156-strong field bidding for success.
Here, Molinari assesses the chances of five European players chasing Major glory.
Players to watch
Rory McIlroy
Since winning the Masters for a second time to become a six-time Major champion, the Northern Irishman has recorded two top 20s either side of a tie for seventh at the US PGA Championship last month.
His +1.09 SG distance off the tee is the highest of any European, and the engine of his season to date.
While his accuracy off the tee is essentially neutral (-0.02), and the only concern due to Shinnecock's fescue rough punishing wide misses, he recovers brilliantly: +0.19 SG approach from the rough is better than his number from the fairway (+0.14).
His putting at +0.29 keeps the floor high.
After his near-misses at Los Angeles Country Club and Pinehurst No. 2 in 2023 and 2024 respectively, McIlroy clearly has unfinished U.S. Open business. The form curve says it will not stay unfinished much longer.
Ludvig Åberg
The Swede is the only European with positive numbers in every key statistical category and, perhaps most notably, in the two that matter most at a U.S. Open.
His SG off the tee of +0.80 features a +0.56 and +0.25 distance / accuracy split, and his SG approach is +0.65.
With the potential for tough greens at Shinnecock, his +0.25 SG putting is rock solid.
Tied second at the Masters Tournament in 2024 as a rookie, he can clearly handle the moment.
Having since added a further two top-ten finishes at Majors, including tied fourth at this year's US PGA Championship, a first Major win feels overdue.
Tommy Fleetwood
The Englishman's story at Shinnecock writes itself: solo second in the 2018 U.S. Open with a final-round 63 that then tied the U.S. Open record. He missed an eight-foot putt on 18 that would have given him the first 62 in Major history, losing to Koepka by one shot.
The 2026 numbers say he is built for this exact test: +0.68 SG accuracy off the tee - the straightest driver in the European field.
With SG Approach from the fairway at +0.25, when he hits it, he scores as they say.
He was also T2 at Pebble Beach in 2019. No European is better suited to Shinnecock by either history or numbers.
Shane Lowry
Elite from rough and sharp on tough greens, the Irishman appears made for the U.S. Open.
Lowry has +0.24 SG approach from the rough - top-tier among Europeans and the single most useful skill at Shinnecock, where missing the fairway is inevitable.
Add in his accuracy off the tee (+0.35), his approach total (+0.62) and his putting (+0.27) and you have a complete U.S. Open package.
He was second to Dustin Johnson at Oakmont in 2016 - he knows what the week demands.
A second Major would be a hard-earned and long-awaited reward.
Justin Rose
At 45, Rose is playing some of the best golf of his career with his irons. Having signed with McLaren Golf ahead of the Cadillac Championship in late April, he finished tied tenth at the US PGA Championship.
He totals +0.69 SG approach per round, and crucially +0.36 from the rough - the highest of any European and exactly the skill that wins U.S. Opens.
The 2013 champion at Merion has the Major pedigree, the wedge play (+0.26) and the putting (+0.25) to back the irons.
Bypass the age conversation and the numbers say he is a top-five threat at Shinnecock.
| Player | SG: Total | Tee | Approach | Wedge | Short Game | Putting | Distance off the tee | Accuracy off the tee | Approach. Fairway | Approach. Rough |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +2.18 | +1.06 | +0.66 | +0.15 | +0.10 | +0.29 | +1.09 | -0.02 | +0.14 | +0.19 |
| Ludvig Åberg | +1.80 | +0.80 | +0.65 | +0.16 | +0.20 | +0.25 | +0.56 | +0.25 | +0.21 | +0.12 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1.16 | +0.61 | +0.34 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.06 | -0.07 | +0.68 | +0.25 | +0.02 |
| Shane Lowry | +1.21 | +0.27 | +0.62 | +0.18 | -0.05 | +0.27 | -0.08 | +0.35 | +0.11 | +0.24 |
| Justin Rose | +1.16 | +0.04 | +0.69 | +0.26 | -0.20 | +0.25 | -0.02 | +0.05 | +0.32 | +0.36 |
*The numbers above are for the 2026 season up to the Memorial Tournament, per round, vs the PGA TOUR field.
Get more from the DP World Tour with My Tour
Get more from the DP World Tour. Priority ticket access, exclusive content, prizes and much more.
The DP World Tour brings you thrilling action throughout the Race to Dubai and My Tour gives you the chance to get closer to the action than ever before on golf's Global Tour.
To sign up for My Tour for free, click here.
