By Edoardo Molinari
For the final time this season on the Rolex Series, three-time DP World Tour winner and Europe's Ryder Cup Vice Captain Edoardo Molinari identifies the key holes at Jumeirah Golf Estates' Earth Course and the players to watch out for as one of golf's leading data analysts.
Looking back: Nicolai Højgaard's victory in 2023
Nicolai Højgaard gained around +0.6 shots per round off the tee, +1.4 on approach play and +1.6 on the greens. The only part of his game that didn’t perform that week was his short putting, as he lost about -0.3 shots per round on putts inside 6 ft.
The Dane got off to a slow start almost every day, as he lost shots on the field in the first six holes apart from the final round, where he got off to a great start to shoot 64 and win the tournament.
Overall he gained over two shots per round on the field over holes 13 to 18, which was 60% of what he gained during the week.
His approach play was particularly good outside 175 yards where he gained 1.3 shots per round.
His putting was exceptional from 14 to 23 feet as he gained another 0.8 shots per round.
The Fortinet Threat holes to watch out for
Hole 14
While it measures 626 yards, this is a reachable par five with a very tricky second shot, as the water looms right of the green, and both the fairway and the green slope right into it.
The long hitters have a huge advantage here as they can make the second shot much easier with a long drive.
Going for it in two is always the right strategy, as you almost double the chance for a birdie (52% going for it vs 28% laying up)
There is no bailout on the second shot as missing the green left leaves a difficult chip shot. Players from the left side of the green leave the chip shot 17ft away from the hole on average. The best miss is always the front bunker.
Hole 15
This is a short par four where players will face different options off the tee.
Usually, with the back pins everyone hits driver while with the short pins you have to make sure to hit the fairway to stop the ball and you also have to take into account how good you are with wedges.
Some players would rather have a full wedge than a 50-yard shot over a bunker to a tight pin. You will hear some interesting player-caddie conversations on this tee!
Even though it is a short par four, there have only been 28% of birdies historically, and only 13% from the rough. You have to be on the fairway on this hole to give yourself a birdie chance.
Hole 18
This is one of the most exciting finishing holes of the year.
Depending on the wind conditions and the tee setup, it can become a reachable par five or a very difficult one where no one gets home in two shots.
The stream splits the fairway in half and you need to take a decision off the tee on which side you want to be.
Historically it’s been slightly better aiming for the right side of the fairway if you are long enough, but from the tee they generally use you need a carry of 290 yards over water to reach that side of the fairway. Other players like to layup on the left side but the second shot becomes a lot more difficult.
Hitting the fairway is key here as it improves scoring average by almost 0.500 shots compared to missing the fairway.
Players to watch
This is a course that, similarly to Yas Links, suits long drivers and great putters. The long hitters can easily reach all the par fives and they can also carry some bunkers to make the course a lot easier. The greens are relatively easy to hit so good putters can also separate themselves from the field. If you look at previous winners it’s mostly been great drivers (Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Nicolai Højgaard) or great putters (Matt Fitzpatrick, Danny Willett).
The Stars
Rory McIlroy is one of the favourites, like any week of the year. He loves playing in the Middle East and he is the best player in the field. He can take full advantage of his driving around Jumeirah Golf Estates and he has a great record around here.
Tommy Fleetwood has been a serious contender over the Earth Course. Now he is based there full time so he will have some local knowledge. He struggled on the greens at the venue over the last three years but his tee to green performances have been second to none.
Tyrrell Hatton is in good form after a great win at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and a runner-up finish in Abu Dhabi. He was a close second in 2022 and he seems to like the course as he was able to gain shots in every area over the last three years. His great putting could really make a difference this week.
The Outsiders
Tom McKibbin is looking for a strong performance to secure his PGA TOUR card and dual membership. The course should suit his great driving skills. His putting let him down during the summer but he had some good weeks on the greens recently. Should he have a good week on the greens, he could be a serious contender.
Jesper Svensson is another great driver with good putting skills. He has all but wrapped up his PGA TOUR card and he can play without any pressure. He is a rookie around Jumeirah but has got the game to finish high up on the leaderboard.
Jordan Smith has been finding some form again over recent weeks, especially on the greens. His is in the hunt for a PGA TOUR card and his consistent driving should help him around here.
