By Edoardo Molinari
Three-time DP World Tour winner and Europe's Ryder Cup Vice Captain Edoardo Molinari identifies the key holes at Emirates Golf Club and the players to watch out for as one of golf's leading data analysts.
Looking back: Rory McIlroy's victory in 2024
McIlroy gained 1.9 shots per round off the tee which represented 51% of his total strokes gained despite hitting just 45% of fairways. With an outstanding record around the Majlis Course which sees his four wins come from 11 consecutive top tens dating back to 2009, he clearly knows where he can miss the short grass, allowing him to take driver and be aggressive.
His approach play was almost equally impressive as he gained 1.8 shots per round with approach shots and wedges. Most of his gains came from over 175 yards and with the Majlis suiting that kind of game, once again McIlroy used his wealth of course knowledge to maximum advantage.
One area where the Northern Irishman was not particularly strong was putting, gaining only 0.2 shots per round and being below the field average from inisde 13 feet.
But his all-round game was more than capable of making up for it, particularly on Saturday, where he gained over nine shots on the field, with nearly seven of them coming from tee to green.
The Fortinet holes to watch out for
These three holes are not the most diffcult trio on the course but they are the three holes with the greatest variance in scoring, where players have the biggest chance to separate themselves from the field and win or lose the event.
Hole 18
The tee shot on the par-five final hole on the Majlis is probably the most important of the round, with players who can go for the green in two better off by 0.514 shots per round compared to those who lay up.
The fairway slopes slightly towards the water and narrows when you take on the corner but when hitting the fairway, 55% of players make birdie or better, with that dropping to 30% if you miss the short stuff.
The 18th is the third easiest hole on the course but with water comes variability in scoring and while 44% of players make birdie or better, 10% also record bogey or worse.
Hole 9
The toughest hole on the golf course where it is relatively easy to find water either off the tee or with your second shot.
The end of the front nine presents players with the most difficult approach shot on the layout, a task made even harder if you miss the fairway, with just 26% of players who do so hitting the green.
This 488-yard par four yields a birdie just 7% of the time, with 32% of players recording bogey or worse.
Hole 13
This par-five dog-leg presents a good birdie opportnity, with 42% of players making birdie or better but with water to the right of the tricky green, it is not a hole to be taken for granted.
As well as having water to the right, fewer than 40% of players get up and down if they miss left, so hitting the green is key if you decide to go for it in two.
All this means that while birdie or even eagle is gettable, 9% of players also record bogey or worse.
Players to watch
The stars
McIlroy is quite understandably the favourite this week with his remarkable record on a layout that suits long hitters. He made his debut here 19 years ago and 12 months later made his first DP World Tour cut over the Majlis before going on to seal his first win in 2009 which he follwed with victories in 2015, 2023 and 2024. He has gained over 3.5 shots per orund over the field in his last three appearances and while this is his first start in two months, he could arguably win around here with his B-game.
Tommy Fleetwood arrives off the back of a good week at the Team Cup where he claimed four points from four in Great Britain & Ireland's win. While the third highest-ranked player in the field, he perhaps surprisingly only has two top tens at this event from playing in every edition since 2012. That is largely because he has struggled on the greens but he should be up there on Sunday if he gets the short stick working.
Tyrrell Hatton is another who had a goood week at the Team Cup, winning 3½ points in Abu Dhabi. He had three consecutive top tens here from 2016 to 2018 but has recorded just one since and like Fleetwood, does not always find his best at Emirates Golf Club. The golf course suits him nicely, however, and he arrives off the back of four consecutive individual top tens on the DP World Tour, including a win at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.
The outsiders
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen has no previous experience on the Majlis but it should suit his game. Did not pick up a point at the Team Cup but his individual results at the end of last season were excellent and has the advantage of having a hugely experienced caddie on the bag in Brian Nilsson.
Sam Bairstow is a big hitter and a great putter, two facets that are absolutely vital around this layout. Like Neergaard-Petersem, he has never played here before but the course should suit and he is coming off a great rookie season, having finished 36th on the Race to Dubai with four top tens after graduating from the Challenge Tour.
Francesco Laporta is another who fits the profile to do well this week: good off the tee and on the greens. Those qualities came to the fore in the second half of last year as he made 12 cuts from 14 with two top tens to make it to the DP World Tour Championship. He missed the cut in his only previous appearannce here but already has a top ten this season and arrives with momentum.
