By Edoardo Molinari
Ahead of the fourth Rolex Series event of the season, three-time DP World Tour winner and Europe's Ryder Cup Vice Captain Edoardo Molinari identifies the key holes at Yas Links and the players to watch out for as he dives deep into the data.
Looking back: Victor Perez's victory in 2023
Victor Perez produced an all-round performance to win his maiden Rolex Series title last year, coupled with excellent putting at Yas Links.
He gained around +0.8 shots per round off the tee, +1.1 on approach play and +1.6 on the greens.
The only part of his game that didn’t perform that week was the wedges, as he lost about -0.7 shots per round.
He got off to a slow start on day one, as he lost shots to the field everywhere apart from with his putting, but he then played three great rounds of golf, capped by a hole-out bunker shot for birdie on the 71st hole.
His approach play was particularly good from 175 yards to 225 yards where he gained 0.7 shots per round.
His putting was fantastic from 14 feet to 23 feet thanks to a very aggressive mindset as he left only 14% of putts short from that range versus 30% for the field.
The Fortinet Threat holes to watch out for
Hole 6
Measuring 468 yards, the par-four sixth has proven to be the toughest hole since the tournament moved to Yas Links in 2022.
The scoring average is usually around 4.23, so a par here is a great score.
Over the two previous editions, there have only been 11% of birdies against 29% of bogeys or worse.
Most holes at Yas Links have wide fairways, but this is unquestionably one of the most difficult fairways to find as only 51% of players hit this fairway. The penalty for missing the fairway is very high too as the scoring average is 0.5 shots per round higher for players missing the fairway off the tee.
Hole 7
This is the easiest hole on the course with a scoring average of 4.529 but it provides a lot of excitement as around half of the players will score a birdie or better.
The second shot is key on this hole as the entrance of the green is pretty narrow and it is difficult to get up and down if you are short sided, particularly from the right side of the green.
Hole 18
This finishing par five is one of the few par fives of the year that plays over par.
When the wind blows from the north west it is particularly difficult, despite the fairway being very wide (nearly 80 yards wide with just a small bunker in the middle).
Since 2022, there have only been 25% of birdies against 21% of bogeys or worse.
When the wind does blow, players will face a tricky decision on the tee shot: going left of the bunker is the risky strategy but they can get home in two shots, while going right means less risk but they will have to hit a good short iron to make a birdie.
Players to watch
This is a course that suits long drivers and great putters.
The fairways are the widest of the year, so you can only separate yourself by hitting it longer than the field off the tee and then make a lot of putts.
The greens are also very large so when the wind blows there will be a higher number of lag putts than the average tournament on Tour.
Here, I pick out some players who statistically have a good chance at performing well this week.
The Stars
Rory McIlroy is clearly one of the favourites again. He loves playing in the Middle East and he is the best player in the field. He can take full advantage of his driving around Yas Links and should he have a good week on the greens, he will be a force to contend with for everyone with any hopes of winning.
Adam Scott has been in great form since the summer. He is a great driver of the ball and in recent years he has become one of the best putters in the world. Yas Links should be a great fit for him and, like most Australians, he is used to chipping the ball off tight lies and putting on fast greens.
Rasmus Højgaard is all but confirmed of earning his PGA TOUR card and dual membership next season. He will play the last two Rolex Series events hoping to get that first card. Yas Links is very well suited for him, as his putting has been phenomenal in 2024 and he is a long hitter that can take advantage of the wide fairways.
The Outsiders
Francesco Laporta has been playing some great golf in recent weeks, with two tied sixth finishes in his last three starts after a slow spring and summer. He is a great driver of the ball who likes to play in windy conditions. Yas Links should suit him very well. With a good week he could sneak a spot into the DP World Tour Championship.
Sam Bairstow is a long hitter with great putting skills. Another great fit for Yas Links, he likes to play in the Middle East as proved by his results at the beginning of the year.
Thorbjørn Olesen is coming off two straight top tens in France and Spain. He came back from the PGA TOUR and he looks like a man on a mission to regain dual membership status. He again fits the narrative of a long hitter with great putting so this could be a big week for the Dane.
